[ExI] next county

[William Flynn Wallace]

Spike, I certainly did not mean to trivialize your interest in the data.  I
do have a concern that your time will be wasted.  Who is going to listen to
you?  These things are way over our heads:  White House, CDC, some others.

bill w

On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 12:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] next county
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> >…Spike, is this just a little hobby, or are there serious uses to you
> for these data?  bill w
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> Little hobby?  Indeed sir?  We are seeing a case where junky data is being
> collected, where their own sites clearly tell us the data is junky and
> uncertain, the data is being handed up to state level sites where the
> caveats have disappeared, then the states make decisions based on junky
> data whether children can go to school next week and whether businesses
> live or die.  This isn’t some little hobby.  This is alarming as hell.
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> I see a clear mechanism whereby covid deaths can be overcounted (by the
> site’s clear admission), then I compare new cases per day to the (possibly
> overcounted) covid death rate a coupla weeks later and notice a huge
> disconnect between what we are told is the mortality rate advertised and
> the one we get by dividing the number of cases the sites are calling covid
> deaths by the number of covid new cases and I am getting numbers around
> half a percent.
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> BillW, this is not a hobby, nor is it political.  Big life and death
> decisions are being made on the basis of junky data which any amateur can
> see contains a huge anomaly: the covid death rate looks like around half a
> percent, which isn’t all that different from other flus we have seen
> before, and yet this time we are closing businesses resulting in their
> failure.
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> If nothing else this is vindicating Belgium.  They kept telling us that
> comparing covid numbers by nation is meaningless because they were being
> counted differently.  Belgium looks like the hardest-hit nation in the
> world, or in the top 3.  But kept telling us they were counting suspected
> cases, people who died with covid as having died of covid, that their data
> wasn’t directly comparable to other countries.  Now I suspect they were
> telling the truth all along.
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> Big decisions are being made based on junky data with a clear anomaly (the
> mortality rate) and the caveats on the data disappear as it rises.
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> Note there is no political content anywhere in any of that breezy
> commentary.  This is all about data.
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> BillW, ja, I do have a serious use for this data, for I too make decisions
> based on it.  I mighta caught covid back in December but I still haven’t
> tested because I don’t want to go anywhere near that hospital in case it
> wasn’t that.  MIghta been a different viral pneumonia, in which case I
> wouldn’t be immune from what I might catch at the hospital.  I had a close
> extended contact with someone who had recently returned from China when I
> got sick.
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> Meanwhile… businesses are dying.  If businesses die, we die.
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> spike
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