[ExI] next county

[William Flynn Wallace]

Defunding the police?  Aren't they a bit off topic?  I guess the theory is
that as long as you are asking for something, why not ask for the Moon?
bill w

On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 3:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] next county
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> Spike, I certainly did not mean to trivialize your interest in the data.
> I do have a concern that your time will be wasted.  Who is going to listen
> to you?  These things are way over our heads:  White House, CDC, some
> others.
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> bill w
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> No worries BillW, this is a particular interest to me.  Those two you
> named, White House and CDC are irrelevant to the decisions that matter to
> me: the decisions made in Sacramento are the ones that impact me directly.
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> We are facing a huge revolution in something I am closely connected to:
> our local public school.  The Super just told us yesterday that the
> shutdown study from home paradigm will apply to the entire first semester,
> so there will be no return to the classroom before Jingle Bells.  Sounds
> like for the second semester students will have a choice between learn at
> home and part time classroom.
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> Regarding use of my time, my study of the quality of the covid dataset is
> trivial compared to what I will likely soon be investing in the other
> activities impacted by that data.  To do this most effectively I need a
> pretty good picture of the virus-scape.  I now don’t feel I have one.
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> Now we have open calls for public school parents and volunteers to help
> at-risk students in particular but they will also accept volunteers to help
> the most promising students.  This becomes even more interesting if what I
> am hearing is true (not saying that it is (and it sounds dubious or
> exaggerated)): the teachers’ union says its members will refuse to return
> to the classroom unless yakkity yak and bla bla, with a bunch of stuff the
> school board and the county cannot do for them.  It includes defunding
> police, expanded public this and that, sheesh, a pile of stuff the Super
> will hafta tell them to take to the governor who will also tell them no,
> because he doesn’t have the budget for any of it.
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> So what if they carry out their threat and a bunch of them refuse to come
> to school?  For the first time, we are in a position to just adios amigo
> about half of them.  We can come up with work-arounds.  A Zoom conference
> works just as well with 100 students as it does with 30.
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> spike
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> On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 12:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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> > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] next county
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> >…Spike, is this just a little hobby, or are there serious uses to you
> for these data?  bill w
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> Little hobby?  Indeed sir?  We are seeing a case where junky data is being
> collected, where their own sites clearly tell us the data is junky and
> uncertain, the data is being handed up to state level sites where the
> caveats have disappeared, then the states make decisions based on junky
> data whether children can go to school next week and whether businesses
> live or die.  This isn’t some little hobby.  This is alarming as hell.
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> I see a clear mechanism whereby covid deaths can be overcounted (by the
> site’s clear admission), then I compare new cases per day to the (possibly
> overcounted) covid death rate a coupla weeks later and notice a huge
> disconnect between what we are told is the mortality rate advertised and
> the one we get by dividing the number of cases the sites are calling covid
> deaths by the number of covid new cases and I am getting numbers around
> half a percent.
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> BillW, this is not a hobby, nor is it political.  Big life and death
> decisions are being made on the basis of junky data which any amateur can
> see contains a huge anomaly: the covid death rate looks like around half a
> percent, which isn’t all that different from other flus we have seen
> before, and yet this time we are closing businesses resulting in their
> failure.
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> If nothing else this is vindicating Belgium.  They kept telling us that
> comparing covid numbers by nation is meaningless because they were being
> counted differently.  Belgium looks like the hardest-hit nation in the
> world, or in the top 3.  But kept telling us they were counting suspected
> cases, people who died with covid as having died of covid, that their data
> wasn’t directly comparable to other countries.  Now I suspect they were
> telling the truth all along.
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> Big decisions are being made based on junky data with a clear anomaly (the
> mortality rate) and the caveats on the data disappear as it rises.
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> Note there is no political content anywhere in any of that breezy
> commentary.  This is all about data.
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> BillW, ja, I do have a serious use for this data, for I too make decisions
> based on it.  I mighta caught covid back in December but I still haven’t
> tested because I don’t want to go anywhere near that hospital in case it
> wasn’t that.  MIghta been a different viral pneumonia, in which case I
> wouldn’t be immune from what I might catch at the hospital.  I had a close
> extended contact with someone who had recently returned from China when I
> got sick.
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> Meanwhile… businesses are dying.  If businesses die, we die.
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> spike
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