[ExI] sturgis rolls on

Sat Aug 8 20:47:24 UTC 2020

> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] sturgis rolls on

On Aug 8, 2020, at 11:42 AM, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Quoting Spike:

>>>…There is a risk that if there is a huge outbreak at Sturgis, those bikers come from every state in the union and they will be riding back home next week…  spike

>>…I am hardly surprised, since per capita motorcycle fatalities in 2017 were 59.34 per 100,000. This is more than the fatality rate of COVID-19 here in the U.S. which is 47.9 per 100,000.

https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-motorcycle-crashes
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

>>…The lifestyle/hobby of bikers is more dangerous than the coronavirus so for them, COVID-19 is just a spicy cold. …Stuart LaForge

Stuart, a couple in my own biker group (in their late 60s) caught covid in April.  They agree, it completely whooped their asses for about a month, just flattened them both.  Even for tough biker dudes and chicks, this is a really bad flu.

>…A 23% difference in death rate doesn’t seem like the difference between normal and spicy cold to me. They’re almost comparable rates. So, if all bikers were to get the virus and die at that rate from it, it would almost double their death rate.  Regards,  Dan

OK let’s focus please on a question that has me thinking overtime and triple-time because I have some responsibility for what I recommend.

There is no politics involved because the bikers were coming to Sturgis anyway, regardless of who did what.  There is no known mechanism for compelling them to quarantine when they return from the rally.  You can ask them to, but there’s nothing we can do if they refuse, and plenty of them will refuse.  So the lawman is out of the loop for the most part, particularly after they never bothered to try to enforce masks or quarantines on those returning from rioting, burning and looting.  That’s different for some reason.

OK then, bikers in Sturgis right now, one hell of a lot of em, quarter of a million, looootta lotta close contact, partying, lotta drinking, smoking that wacky terbacky and such as that.  Lotta representation in the people in their 60s and 70s, pleeeenty of married couples, so either one catching it will give it to the other.  That looks like a recipe for catastrophe.  

My understanding is that outdoor contact is relatively low-risk compared to indoor contact, but this rally has plenty of both.  We could end up with a dataset where we can compare people who were at the same event, some outdoors the whole time (refusing to go inside anywhere (that is one of your options at Stugis)) and those who did the indoor events at every opportunity.

There is another reason I am very interested.  My own biker group is meeting at Sturgis three weeks from now.  We intentionally set our rally for after school starts.  The room rate is waaaay lower once the Harley guys leave.  I had already decided to not go this year (for reasons unrelated to covid (it was before anyone ever heard of it (too many other obligations with school stuff.)))  My biker group is even older on average than the Sturgis crowd.  I am the kid at nearly 60.  Our leader of the pack turned 80 last month.  He wants to go ahead with it.  So… we go.

With three weeks lead time, if I know how to extract the signal and I do the math right, I aughta be able to offer some guidance to my own biker friends on the wisdom of hitting Sturgis three weeks after the big event.  The crowds will be waaaaay down, and we are not hard-drinking types.  Drugs are not seen at our events at all.  But we are an older and more fragile crowd than the Harley dudes.

Do let us put our heads together on this, shall we?  There should be a way to find out if the Sturgis rally kicked off a big new wave in a coupla weeks, ja?  I know there is plenty of statistical talent here.  

Help us ExI-wan Kenobi!  You’re my only hope.

spike

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