# [ExI] Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Aug 10 17:01:47 UTC 2020

```

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>

>…So, we had 860 per 100k-prole before, now in our troubled times we get about 50 more, of or with covid.  This epidemic increased our death rate by around 6 to 7%, somewhere in that range.  spike

Interesting exercise: ask your friends and online contacts to estimate the increase in fatalities from covid.  Have them guess at it, not calculate it.

Reason: I just asked my bride and my son, first to estimate the background fatality rate.  Both said about 1000 per 100k, not bad at all, since the world-data sites say 860.  Mortality rates everywhere can be expected at about 1000 per 100k, somewhere around there.

What do you think they guessed for the mortality rate this year?

First guess what you think they guessed, then here’s the answer: my bride guessed 1500, my son about 1400.

So they think covid will increase mortality by about half again over background.  I am getting about 6 to 7%.  My own bride, who is an engineer, missed by nearly an order of magnitude.  I am eager to cut her a little slack, for she is just young enough to never have used a slide rule.

Fun exercise: see if there is any detectable correlation between their answers and their news sources.  Post to your friends who are medics, see if they get closer, and if so, by how much.

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20200810/27d34d82/attachment-0001.htm>
```