[ExI] England reduces total Covid-19 deaths by 12%

Henry Rivera hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu
Thu Aug 13 17:15:10 UTC 2020

I recognize you all are talking about the death count. But I want to bring to your attention an equally slippery number which is the case count. Local hospital COOs I’ve heard from are convinced the positive case counts in the US at least are a vast underestimate due to a lack of available/accessible testing and many people who got sick opting not to get tested. Spike was a case in point for example if I recall correctly. 


> On Aug 13, 2020, at 11:11 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> What I would like to see:  data on people who have survived the virus.  How has it affected their health weeks and months later.  I see a report that myocarditis can follow this infection.  Maybe if more people knew things like that they would quit comparing it to the flu.   bill w
>> On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 9:24 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
>> ubject: [ExI] England reduces total Covid-19 deaths by 12%
>> <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711>
>> Quote:
>> >...Previously, people in England who died at any point following a positive
>> test, regardless of cause, were counted in the figures.
>> But there will now be a cut-off of 28 days, providing a more accurate
>> picture of the epidemic.
>> >...The new methodology for counting deaths means the total number of people
>> in the UK who have died from Covid-19 comes down from 46,706 to 41,329 - a
>> reduction of 12%.
>> -------------
>> >...They say the initial higher count was to avoid undercounting the
>> seriousness of the pandemic.
>> Translation - we needed a big number to justify shutting down the country
>> and causing a recession.
>> >...They now say the new count will give "crucial information about both
>> recent trends and the overall mortality burden due to Covid-19".
>> Translation - Look at the state the economy is in! We'd better get everyone
>> back to work, so tell them that it's not as bad as we thought!
>> >...BillK
>> _______________________________________________
>> Hi BillK
>> We have lost some important data on this side of the pond too.  We can take
>> the overall death rate this year, subtract the average and we get a number.
>> In the states, we can do that exercise in every state and compare how the
>> quarantines were handled.  The number we get is a mixture of those who
>> perished from the virus and those who perished as an indirect result of the
>> virus such as closing businesses, fear causing business failures and
>> compelling sick people to stay away from the hospital when it might have
>> saved them.
>> I didn't talk to Steve Van Sickle before he passed to see if he was avoiding
>> the doctor for fear of covid, but I am one who will go nowhere near that
>> hospital, not to get a C-19 test, not for an annual checkup, not for any
>> reason.  If I end up there, it is because I was carried there on a stretcher
>> in the back of a truck with blinkety lights on top.
>> We have lost important and useful data from the Sturgis bike rally because
>> we failed to organize a means of tracking the participants upon their
>> return.
>> Belgium kept telling us that comparing these numbers is meaningless because
>> they are counted differently from one country to the next.  Sounds to me
>> like they were telling the truth.  In the states, hospitals are strained to
>> the point of going out of business.  
>> The hospital where I was born (painfully many decades ago) closed its doors
>> for lack of customers last month.  Hospitals were incentivized to report
>> fatalities as covids to tap into a federal fund.  Our Lady of Bellefonte in
>> Kentucky didn't have enough covid cases to stay in business, and the others
>> wouldn't go there.
>> spike
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