[ExI] England reduces total Covid-19 deaths by 12%

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sat Aug 15 05:22:37 UTC 2020



> On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] England reduces total Covid-19 deaths by 12%


Maybe the death counts are not correct after all. Did anyone else see this? Interesting methodology for estimating the true death count. 



>…“Across the United States, at least  <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html> 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the  <https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm> Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been  <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html> directly linked to the coronavirus.

>…As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by  <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html> other causes linked to the pandemic.”




Thanks Henry,


This article is behind a paywall.  I kinda get the drift from just the first two paragraphs however: it is crazy difficult to analyze the data in a scientifically-useful way.  In the states (and perhaps elsewhere) financial and political motives have really messed up data collection.  When a person dies, there is seldom just one thing wrong, so the question itself is somewhat subjective.  If a test on a corpse detects antibodies, that doesn’t really tell the coroner how long ago the patient had the disease.


So… we know.  We need to look at overall death rates this year compared to the average of the other years, then say this is about the number of deaths connected to covid, but it is still unclear what percent were from the disease, what percent from government actions taken to stop the pandemic, what percent were from people staying away from the hospital or doctor for fear of covid, etc.  These are numbers we may never know.





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