[ExI] covid again

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Aug 17 22:17:47 UTC 2020


Yesterday ago I posted some data from the county on covid fatalities.  In a
county of about 2 million, there were three fatalities in the last coupla


The new case rate is down some, but didn't really go away: we are still
getting 150ish new cases per day on average, but it is really different from
before, where we had maybe 200ish cases per day but a waaaaay higher
fatality rate.


It got me to thinking: this is a little like how I remember HIV was back in
the 80s.  It seemed like a lotta people caught it back then, and when they
did, they would spin right on into the ground pretty quickly.  I am not an
expert on these matters, but I do recall there seemed to be a lot of new
cases and they didn't last long.


But a coupla decades later, you don't really hear much about HIV, and even
those who have it seem to hang on for a long time.  I had a step brother who
had it 11 yrs before it finally took him down, and most of that time he had
no visible symptoms.


Now we see covid, a kind of similar pattern perhaps.  The new case rate
isn't going down much, but the fatality rate is, almost everywhere.


This causes me to speculate: perhaps the most susceptible people caught it,
right up front, and the most likely to perish perished soon afterwards.  


On the other hand, now we see cases like my second cousin in law, who is 76,
who came down with it, but his symptoms were never all that severe.  He had
a low-grade fever for a coupla weeks, fatigue, tested positive, not much
they could do for him really, a week later he was OK.  His bride is 72, same
house, never caught it, never tested positive for antibodies or virus.




In any case, as of about today. it has been long enough since the start of
the Sturgis rally, if that is a super-spreader event (how the heck could it
not be?) we will see a wave of positive cases.  Recall there are estimated a
quarter million biker proles at that rally last week, starting around 10 or
11 days ago.  If we don't see the impact of that, I don't understand how
this thing spreads.



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