[ExI] covid again

[Stathis Papaioannou]

On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 at 08:19, spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> Yesterday ago I posted some data from the county on covid fatalities.  In
> a county of about 2 million, there were three fatalities in the last coupla
> weeks.
>
>
>
> The new case rate is down some, but didn’t really go away: we are still
> getting 150ish new cases per day on average, but it is really different
> from before, where we had maybe 200ish cases per day but a waaaaay higher
> fatality rate.
>
>
>
> It got me to thinking: this is a little like how I remember HIV was back
> in the 80s.  It seemed like a lotta people caught it back then, and when
> they did, they would spin right on into the ground pretty quickly.  I am
> not an expert on these matters, but I do recall there seemed to be a lot of
> new cases and they didn’t last long.
>
>
>
> But a coupla decades later, you don’t really hear much about HIV, and even
> those who have it seem to hang on for a long time.  I had a step brother
> who had it 11 yrs before it finally took him down, and most of that time he
> had no visible symptoms.
>
>
>
> Now we see covid, a kind of similar pattern perhaps.  The new case rate
> isn’t going down much, but the fatality rate is, almost everywhere.
>
>
>
> This causes me to speculate: perhaps the most susceptible people caught
> it, right up front, and the most likely to perish perished soon
> afterwards.
>
>
>
> On the other hand, now we see cases like my second cousin in law, who is
> 76, who came down with it, but his symptoms were never all that severe.  He
> had a low-grade fever for a coupla weeks, fatigue, tested positive, not
> much they could do for him really, a week later he was OK.  His bride is
> 72, same house, never caught it, never tested positive for antibodies or
> virus.
>
>
>
> …hmmmm…
>
>
>
> In any case, as of about today… it has been long enough since the start of
> the Sturgis rally, if that is a super-spreader event (how the heck could it
> not be?) we will see a wave of positive cases.  Recall there are estimated
> a quarter million biker proles at that rally last week, starting around 10
> or 11 days ago.  If we don’t see the impact of that, I don’t understand how
> this thing spreads.
>

There are very effective antiviral treatments for HIV now, so it is
unlikely that people who have it and are appropriately treated will die
from it.


-- 
Stathis Papaioannou
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