[ExI] Sturgis murders? was: Exi JKC Political Posting Final Warning

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
...

>...That whole setting just hasta be a virus playground.  If it isn't, I
need to
rethink everything I thought I knew...I would guess 10% of the bikers would
get infected at that rally...  Guesses? spike


Recall there were nearly half a million bikers at that rally, not including
vendors and locals.  Add those, and half a million is close enough for
single digit precision.

My grim 10% infection estimate means about 50k new cases from that one week
rally alone.  The mortality rate estimates by age range is about

5% for age 45-55 
12% for age 55-65
20% for age 65-75

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14
863

The bikers are a geriatric bunch.  Just going on the photos and my own
experience with bike rallies, I would say the median age is not less than
about 55.  So about 10% mortality is as low as I would estimate, so we are
looking at about 5000 fatalities from that one rally.

The medics back home will inquire, and we will hear.  

California has a looootta lotta proles and the Sturgis rally is popular
here, so we could reasonably estimate 500 Sturgis fatalities in California
alone.  Oy vey.

Other guesses?