[ExI] good news for a change

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Aug 24 04:31:59 UTC 2020


Well today is Sunday, about 17 days since the bikers started showing up in huge numbers at Sturgis, enough time for the signal to show up in the new case data and enough time for the early deaths from the early arrivals to have made a noticeable appearance.  So far, from what I can tell, it isn’t going to be a worst case of 20% catchers.  It isn’t even looking that much like a nominal case (my estimated nominal) of 10% catchers, given the togetherness, the nearly universal disregard of masks (while not riding) the age and the general hard-living bikerness of the biker crowd.


We will continue to watch, but from what I can tell from the California data, we are getting some new infections from Sturgis but not so far the numbers I was fearing.


Well this is good.


There is another calculation I haven’t done but now that I think of it, this exercise makes little sense until I do: what are the number of expected infections if the half million who went to Sturgis stayed home?  If we use Santa Clara County data (not because it is necessarily representative, but because I know the numbers from memory) the county has about 2 million proles and is getting about 200 new cases per day.  If that ratio is ported to Sturgis, we would expect in about half a million bikers about 50 new cases per day.  


OK then.  At this point there isn’t much we can do but wait for the data to rumble in.  The rest of ya, do you have biker friends?  Or do you know anyone who went to Sturgis?  The ones I know are all fine, didn’t catch.  I am told the medics are watching the Sturgis crowd carefully.




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