[ExI] drexler/sandberg paper

[BillK]

On Sun, 30 Aug 2020 at 21:27, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Hi Keith,
> I read over that paper you referenced by Anders and the K. Eric.
> I have a sinking feeling they might be right.
>
> There is a very good chance that planet-spanning tech-enabled civliizations at our level might be something that comes up once in a long while but generally seldom coexists because of its rarity anywhere in our light cone.  If so…  There really is not paradox at all.  We really are all alone out here in the middle of no-where and no-when.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I wouldn't fret too much about it. That paper is complicated
mathematical guesswork.
We have no evidence outside of our solar system. We have no facts
about what the likely probabilities might be.
Multiplying estimated ranges of probabilities is still guesswork.

But any other civilisation is indeed likely to be a long way away from
us and the light speed limitation will make communication very slow
and physical contact would take hundreds of years. We would have to
send an AI to represent us. Let's hope it doesn't tell the truth and
let them know how terrible humanity is!  ;)




BillK