[ExI] drexler/sandberg paper

Dylan Distasio interzone at gmail.com
Sun Aug 30 21:38:25 UTC 2020

Apologies for having missed it, but can someone please link me to the paper?


On Sun, Aug 30, 2020 at 5:35 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sun, 30 Aug 2020 at 21:27, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Keith,
> > I read over that paper you referenced by Anders and the K. Eric.
> > I have a sinking feeling they might be right.
> >
> > There is a very good chance that planet-spanning tech-enabled
> civliizations at our level might be something that comes up once in a long
> while but generally seldom coexists because of its rarity anywhere in our
> light cone.  If so…  There really is not paradox at all.  We really are all
> alone out here in the middle of no-where and no-when.
> >
> > spike
> > _______________________________________________
> I wouldn't fret too much about it. That paper is complicated
> mathematical guesswork.
> We have no evidence outside of our solar system. We have no facts
> about what the likely probabilities might be.
> Multiplying estimated ranges of probabilities is still guesswork.
> But any other civilisation is indeed likely to be a long way away from
> us and the light speed limitation will make communication very slow
> and physical contact would take hundreds of years. We would have to
> send an AI to represent us. Let's hope it doesn't tell the truth and
> let them know how terrible humanity is!  ;)
> BillK
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