[ExI] drexler/sandberg paper

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Aug 30 22:00:19 UTC 2020

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat

> _______________________________________________

>...I wouldn't fret too much about it. That paper is complicated mathematical guesswork.
We have no evidence outside of our solar system. We have no facts about what the likely probabilities might be.
Multiplying estimated ranges of probabilities is still guesswork.

>...But any other civilisation is indeed likely to be a long way away from us and the light speed limitation will make communication very slow and physical contact would take hundreds of years. We would have to send an AI to represent us. Let's hope it doesn't tell the truth and let them know how terrible humanity is!  ;)



Hi BillK, contact isn't the thing.  The uncertainty in the coefficients of the class of models known as Drake equations is the point of the paper.  The probability of even one other tech-enabled civilization in the galaxy derived by a Drake equation spans orders of magnitude.  Knowing that, there is little mystery in our being unable to find them.

Physical contact is irrelevant: just knowing someone is somewhere out there would have an enormous collective psychological impact on humanity.


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