[ExI] online betting on ideas futures

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Feb 9 15:18:24 UTC 2020



From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 


From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat


>>…It's good to be one step ahead of the collective realization.  Treat value you loan to someone else as good as lost…


>…It isn’t clear to me that I am a step ahead of the collective realization…



I did some digging into the fine print in the rules section of one of the online betting sites.  Will, see if you come to the same conclusion I did: PredictIt has written itself permission to delay payment indefinitely which would be the functional equivalent to not paying at all ever, but without PredictIt even folding its tent or skipping town.


I need to first issue a claimer.  Usually there is a disclaimer, along the lines of: I hold 400 shares of Hoerkheimer and 600 shares of McFartzalot (for example.)  But I don’t own any of these shares.  So I must issue a claimer: I am only a fascinated bystander, interested in the notion of ideas futures, and I make no claim to being able to tell the difference between one politician and another.  They all look pretty much alike to me.


Will, check this commentary:



PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. In the event of a tie for the greatest share of apportioned delegates in Iowa, the winner of the Iowa caucuses will be deemed to be the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among those so tied.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.



Do you get the feeling these guys wrote themselves permission to keep the money, all of it?


Variation 1: they suddenly stop all payouts right after the March Tuesday event in which a bunch of state elections are held, and skip… town?  State?  Skip where?  We don’t even know where where they would need to skip, because there is no there there. 


Variation 2: they don’t go out of business, but continue to pay off on the other bets as if nothing happened, but keep all the money on that one bet (which is huge, millions of shares, owned by betting people on both of the disputed candidates.


Variation 3: they pay both sides 50 cents a share?


Other scenarios please?





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