[ExI] online betting on ideas futures

Adrian Tymes atymes at gmail.com
Sun Feb 9 18:51:45 UTC 2020

On Sun, Feb 9, 2020 at 7:20 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Variation 1: they suddenly stop all payouts right after the March Tuesday
> event in which a bunch of state elections are held, and skip… town?
> State?  Skip where?  We don’t even know where where they would need to
> skip, because there is no there there.
> Variation 2: they don’t go out of business, but continue to pay off on the
> other bets as if nothing happened, but keep all the money on that one bet
> (which is huge, millions of shares, owned by betting people on both of the
> disputed candidates.
> Variation 3: they pay both sides 50 cents a share?
> Other scenarios please?

Variation 4: they realize there is a lot more money to be made if they are
seen to be playing by the implied rules, and pay out something that can be
widely accepted as based on at least an arguable truth.  Their customers do
not see that they are taking the money and running, and thus continue to
bet.  They do indeed rake in far more money than in variations 1 or 2, and
more than in variation 3.
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