[ExI] The Corvid-19 Coronavirus
interzone at gmail.com
Thu Feb 13 15:46:29 UTC 2020
Numbers can't be trusted out of China. I don't for a second believe those
were all new cases in a single day. I believe they have still been
growing daily this entire time although of course we have no easy way to
know because the government there has a history of dishonesty in reporting,
there were issues with test kit availability, procedures for counting
someone as sick with coronavirus, and who knows what else. I also suspect
they have been burning bodies at a massive rate and not reporting true
death figures, especially in the wake of the massive increase in new cases.
Southeast Asians have ~5x the number of ACE2 receptors which the virus
interacts with compared to others which implies a higher transmission (and
potentially higher death rate). It also implies BP medications that are
ACE2 inhibitors may blunt the force of the disease, but that's another
If the SARS curve is any indication, it would suggest actual cases in China
(assuming it is mostly contained in country) peak sometime in mid March
with a total die out by early June, but without real data, it's only a shot
in the dark.
On Thu, Feb 13, 2020 at 10:35 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Yesterday there was an optimistic report that the spread if the Corvid-19
> virus may be slowing down. Well forget it, today 48,206 new cases were
> reported, by far the largest one day increase ever.
> John K Clark
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
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