[ExI] The Corvid-19 Coronavirus
sen.otaku at gmail.com
Thu Feb 13 16:23:54 UTC 2020
The numbers from China are not to be trusted, but no one’s are trustable at the moment.
CDC said it messed up a lot of testing kits. Japan doesn’t have enough to test the whole cruise ship.
Now, there is possibly a “superspreader” in Tokyo— a taxi driver who just tested positive. How many days has he been working while infected?
If we expect June to be the “peterout” point, I expect the Japanese economy to absolutely implode: possible cancellation of Olympics, complete loss of Chinese tourism, dramatic reduction of other foreign tourists, lack of domestic tourism, supply chain disruptions for the auto industry (already straining them) as well as decreased demand for Japanese cars in China.
Oil & Gas companies are feeling the pinch. So many flights are just NOT happening right now that demand has really fallen. That means low profits, globally. Oil workers generally don’t have lots of other employment opportunities.
I expect due to the “plague ships” in the news that cruise books will be wayyy down over this/next year.
Even if everything ended now, this hiccup will take a while to recover. Going all the way to June? It’s gonna be really bad. China might recover in 3-5 years, but Japan is probably toasted for like a decade. The only possible “upside” is that it might correct the inverted population pyramid :(
Which makes me sad, because I’d like to move over there.
> On Feb 13, 2020, at 9:46 AM, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Numbers can't be trusted out of China. I don't for a second believe those were all new cases in a single day. I believe they have still been growing daily this entire time although of course we have no easy way to know because the government there has a history of dishonesty in reporting, there were issues with test kit availability, procedures for counting someone as sick with coronavirus, and who knows what else. I also suspect they have been burning bodies at a massive rate and not reporting true death figures, especially in the wake of the massive increase in new cases.
> Southeast Asians have ~5x the number of ACE2 receptors which the virus interacts with compared to others which implies a higher transmission (and potentially higher death rate). It also implies BP medications that are ACE2 inhibitors may blunt the force of the disease, but that's another story.
> If the SARS curve is any indication, it would suggest actual cases in China (assuming it is mostly contained in country) peak sometime in mid March with a total die out by early June, but without real data, it's only a shot in the dark.
>> On Thu, Feb 13, 2020 at 10:35 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> Yesterday there was an optimistic report that the spread if the Corvid-19 virus may be slowing down. Well forget it, today 48,206 new cases were reported, by far the largest one day increase ever.
>> John K Clark
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>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
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