[ExI] The Corvid-19 Coronavirus

[Dylan Distasio]

You make a lot of very good points.  Oil demand has already fallen for the
first time in a decade:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/global-oil-demand-outlook-from-the-iea.html

China has already started the liquidity pump.  Once the extent of the
damage to global GDP is more plainly visible, I would suspect we will see
coordinated central bank liquidity injections/rate cuts/QE in an attempt to
blunt the impact which raises some interesting questions around interest
rates, the stock market, and a likely test of whether MMT and endless
deficits are valid propositions.

On Thu, Feb 13, 2020 at 11:25 AM SR Ballard via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The numbers from China are not to be trusted, but no one’s are trustable
> at the moment.
>
> CDC said it messed up a lot of testing kits. Japan doesn’t have enough to
> test the whole cruise ship.
>
> Now, there is possibly a “superspreader” in Tokyo— a taxi driver who just
> tested positive. How many days has he been working while infected?
>
> If we expect June to be the “peterout” point, I expect the Japanese
> economy to absolutely implode: possible cancellation of Olympics, complete
> loss of Chinese tourism, dramatic reduction of other foreign tourists, lack
> of domestic tourism, supply chain disruptions for the auto industry
> (already straining them) as well as decreased demand for Japanese cars in
> China.
>
> Oil & Gas companies are feeling the pinch. So many flights are just NOT
> happening right now that demand has really fallen. That means low profits,
> globally. Oil workers generally don’t have lots of other employment
> opportunities.
>
> I expect due to the “plague ships” in the news that cruise books will be
> wayyy down over this/next year.
>
> Even if everything ended now, this hiccup will take a while to recover.
> Going all the way to June? It’s gonna be really bad. China might recover in
> 3-5 years, but Japan is probably toasted for like a decade. The only
> possible “upside” is that it might correct the inverted population pyramid
> :(
>
> Which makes me sad, because I’d like to move over there.
>
> SR Ballard
>
> On Feb 13, 2020, at 9:46 AM, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Numbers can't be trusted out of China.  I don't for a second believe those
> were all new cases in a single day.   I believe they have still been
> growing daily this entire time although of course we have no easy way to
> know because the government there has a history of dishonesty in reporting,
> there were issues with test kit availability, procedures for counting
> someone as sick with coronavirus, and who knows what else.  I also suspect
> they have been burning bodies at a massive rate and not reporting true
> death figures, especially in the wake of the massive increase in new cases.
>
> Southeast Asians have ~5x the number of ACE2 receptors which the virus
> interacts with compared to others which implies a higher transmission (and
> potentially higher death rate).  It also implies BP medications that are
> ACE2 inhibitors may blunt the force of the disease, but that's another
> story.
>
> If the SARS curve is any indication, it would suggest actual cases in
> China (assuming it is mostly contained in country) peak sometime in mid
> March with a total die out by early June, but without real data, it's only
> a shot in the dark.
>
> On Thu, Feb 13, 2020 at 10:35 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> Yesterday there was an optimistic report that the spread if the
>> Corvid-19 virus may be slowing down. Well forget it, today 48,206 new cases
>> were reported, by far the largest one day increase ever.
>>
>> John K Clark
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