[ExI] lag time

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sat Jul 4 16:25:34 UTC 2020


The data here is from the county where I live, Santa Clara CA.  Check out these two graphs, about a third of the way down the page, to estimate the lag time between new case detection and death rate:




If you look at the initial surge, it kinda looks like there was a big surge around late March.  But the big surge in death per day was about almost middle of April.


With the partial re-opening of some businesses (and the unfortunate coincident timing of the rallies and riots complicating the picture) we will perhaps get some indication of what is going on.  Our current rate shows that covid is killing about half a prole a day in this county of about 2 million.  The rate appears to be declining gradually, but with these numbers it is hard to tell for sure.  So now we see what happens in about a week.


I am focused on this data because of my role in a volunteer committee regarding public school opening.  


I tend to be a bit over on the cautious side.  I also realize I am a parent of a student who does just fine with video and distance learning.  But I know of those students who do not.  I am told there are some students who desperately need social interaction (nearly every day (for mental health reasons (indeed?  (why?)))) and that video learning is practically useless to them.  Well, ok then.  I believes it but I doesn’t understands it.


On the other hand… people to go bars and restaurants and gun shops by choice.  People even go to grocery stores by choice.  But public school students are compelled to attend.  So… I hold my position: when in doubt, hold em out.


Anyone here who wishes to offer suggestions, particularly the insighty types, BillW, SR, anyone else who has public school experience, I am all ears.  We hafta wait for about a week or two, to see where the case rate and death rate goes, but at this point I am compelled to say we can’t let the proles back on campus the entire first semester.  I plan to use my committee member vote to recommend we not open in September.  Too much risk of asymptomatic students carrying the virus home and killing grandma.




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