[ExI] riots, was: RE: Is a copy of you really you?

[John Clark]

On Wed, Jun 3, 2020 at 4:31 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

*> There is a relationship between R0 and the herd immunity level - the
> higher R0 the higher the percentage needed for herd immunity. Downward
> revision of R0 based on household transmission implies that herd immunity
> should be achieved at lower levels. The exact percentage will of course
> vary in different locations - it will be much higher in NY city than in
> suburban CA *


For herd immunity to COVID-19 to kick in most think at least 60% of the
population must be resistant to it, and probably closer to 80%; and even
after it's reached the pandemic doesn't suddenly stop it just slows down,
it can continue for many months after that. The people of New York City
have the highest levels of antibodies against COVID-19 not just in the
country but in the entire world and it's only 19.9%.

Sweden is betting heavily on herd immunity but in Stockholm  only 7.3% have
the antibody and it's far lower in less densely populated regions of the
country; there was a report it was 27% but it turned out that was just for
Swedish hospital emergency room workers. To add to the uncertainty we're
not even sure that high antibody levels correspond to immunity to the
disease, it might take more than just that.  And even though they spend far
less on medical care than the USA the Swedish population was much healthier
than the American population to start with so would likely suffer a higher
death toll than the Swedes.

>*but it will be much lower than the initial estimate of 80%.*


A R0 number is only meaningful in a given context because it depends
crucially on human behavior, the R0 was much higher before people changed
their behavior and the shutdown and social distancing went into effect, in
fact that was the entire point of it. And initially there was no shutdown
or social distancing, when that changes the R0 will change too.

 John K Clark
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