[ExI] The present and future of AI

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Fri Jun 12 19:42:33 UTC 2020


On Fri, 12 Jun 2020 at 19:50, Jason Resch via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I wrote an analysis of the current capabilities of modern AI systems:
> https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/
>
> I found what some systems are capable of, especially in terms of computational creativity, and general purpose learning algorithms, to be shocking.
>
> For instance, DeepMind has a single AI that has learned to play every Atari game better than any human.  GANs have been made that produce original art pieces and can take a single photo and envision it as a talking head. Google's Duplex can make phone calls and hold conversations so well the person at the other end of the line doesn't realize they're talking to a machine.
>
> I am curious how close members on this list feel we are from achieving AGI. Most estimates seem to put it around 2040 plus or minus 10 years. Is that the general consensus? Could it happen much sooner? Does anyone here believe it will happen much later than that?
>
> Jason
> _______________________________________________


Brian Wang has a recent article considering AGI development.
<https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/05/time-for-iterations-and-costs-going-from-inferior-agi-to-superhuman-agi.html>

Estimates depend on whether you believe that progress will be
exponential or linear.
Also whether financial / political / climate / environment / epidemic
etc. disasters might derail the train of progress.

The military and politicians are beginning to think of superhuman AGI
in the same way that they think of nuclear weapons. So researchers
will not be left alone when they appear to be nearing successful
development.



BillK



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