[ExI] perspective on covid

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Mar 8 14:51:35 UTC 2020



> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] perspective on covid


On Sun, Mar 8, 2020 at 9:28 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:


>>… I was taking the ratio of confirmed cases to the number of people tested.  Using that, the USA still looks good. 


>…401 confirmed cases out of 1895 people tested works out to one case per 4.7 people, and this is just the start of the epidemic. The USA has a population of 328 million and the virus has a very slow incubation period so for all we know 70 million people could already be infected, but we don't know because an idiot is leading the country and only 1895 people out of 328 million have been tested…



The leader of the country isn’t why only 1895 were tested in the USA.  That low number was because we don’t have enough testing kits.  We don’t have enough testing kits because we do not manufacture that stuff here, which has to do with tax structures, FDA requirements and standards, environmental regulations and labor laws.  None of that has to do with scientists or POTUS.  Congress controls that stuff.



>> North Korea has 1.8 times as many positives per prole tested.


>…Huh? North Korea is a Black Hole, nobody knows how many people have been infected…



Ooops I meant South Korea.  South Korea has about 1.8 times the infection rate per person tested, using the numbers you put up.


South Korea is better set up to manufacture these kits than the USA: the SK government is more manufacturing-friendly and is waaaay more medical-device friendly.



>…No country made such kits 2 months ago but some things change and some things don't, some national leaders had the brains and the desire to make it a top priority to dramatically ramp up production of the kits, and some leaders did not… John K Clark    


Priorities don’t matter if the factories are not here or do not comply with FDA regulations.


The manufacture of these kits fall under the body of law which governs medical instruments and devices.  The US system is absurdly expensive to do anything with medical stuff.  It practically demands it all be outsourced, because our system is too expensive for that.  Note FitBit’s experience, and 23&Me.  Under the FDA, we can see a time when all medical devices and drugs will be outsourced, because it is too expensive to make here.


Congress makes those laws regarding standards on medical devices, not POTUS.


We can imagine if a cryonics patient is somehow brought back, then the procedure for preservation would fall under FDA regulations, being a medical procedure rather than a form of interment of remains.  It would suddenly require stacks of licenses and the price would increase tenfold.


Regarding lack of test kits, what I see here is a determination to never let a good crisis go to waste.


John, here’s an interesting question for you which is more to the point and isn’t political: if you could get a test kit manufactured in USA with an error rate of 1 in 1000, or one manufactured in South Korea with an error rate of 1 in 100, but the US-made kit was ten times the price, which one would you buy?  Me too.





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