[ExI] Influential Imperial College Epidemiologist catches COVID and admits his models were off by more than an order of magnitude

Stuart LaForge avant at sollegro.com
Thu Mar 26 18:52:07 UTC 2020


"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial  
College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by  
organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in  
governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his  
model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United  
States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken  
to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson  
is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far  
more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the  
epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on  
COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die  
from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as  
reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."

Seriously? After the UK and USA built their emergency responses around  
his model? Certain anti-science politicians will have a field day with  

Stuart LaForge

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