[ExI] Influential Imperial College Epidemiologist catches COVID and admits his models were off by more than an order of magnitude

Dylan Distasio interzone at gmail.com
Thu Mar 26 20:18:07 UTC 2020

The amount of economic damage being done by overreaction to this threat is
off the charts.  The IFR for this is unlikely to be more than 1% when all
is said and done.   I still predict on record that this thing is
effectively over in the US by early June.  Meanwhile, central banks have
entered a new phase where they essentially are the financial markets.  I'm
also waiting to see the lasting damage done to civil liberties across the

On Thu, Mar 26, 2020 at 4:06 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
> "Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial
> College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by
> organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in
> governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his
> model on Wednesday.
> Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United
> States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken
> to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
> However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson
> is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far
> more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the
> epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on
> COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die
> from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as
> reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
> Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."
> Seriously? After the UK and USA built their emergency responses around
> his model? Certain anti-science politicians will have a field day with
> this.
> Stuart LaForge
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