[ExI] Iceland is filling in the gaps in our understanding of COVID-19

Stuart LaForge avant at sollegro.com
Fri Mar 27 06:39:35 UTC 2020

Here is some new data out of Iceland that some of you will find interesting.


Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, researchers have been  
wringing their hands over potential asymptomatic carriers that may  
have been slipping through under the radar. In most countries, the  
governments are only testing people who exhibit symptoms or fall into  
certain high-risk categories such as recent travel to affected  
countries contact with known cases etc.

Iceland however is a small country of only 364,000 people so they have  
offered COVID-19 testing to anyone who volunteers to get tested. As of  
now they have tested 12,516 people or roughly 3.6% of their country's  
population. What they have found out is that over 50% of those who are  
positive for the virus show no symptoms.

What this indicates is that the virus is less deadly than we think it  
is as the Case Fatality Rate or CFR in Iceland is currently about  
.0025 or 1/4 of 1% whereas in the USA the CFR is about 1.5%. But what  
this implies is that to a very rough approximation, for every  
confirmed case in the USA, there are about five infected people who  
are not showing symptoms and still potentially spreading the virus.

So the virus seems to be spreading like wildfire through dry brush but  
we can only see 1/6th of the flames. Maybe it will burn itself out and  
the USA will achieve herd immunity in a few months like Dylan suggested.

Stuart LaForge

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