[ExI] Iceland is filling in the gaps in our understanding of COVID-19
avant at sollegro.com
Fri Mar 27 06:39:35 UTC 2020
Here is some new data out of Iceland that some of you will find interesting.
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, researchers have been
wringing their hands over potential asymptomatic carriers that may
have been slipping through under the radar. In most countries, the
governments are only testing people who exhibit symptoms or fall into
certain high-risk categories such as recent travel to affected
countries contact with known cases etc.
Iceland however is a small country of only 364,000 people so they have
offered COVID-19 testing to anyone who volunteers to get tested. As of
now they have tested 12,516 people or roughly 3.6% of their country's
population. What they have found out is that over 50% of those who are
positive for the virus show no symptoms.
What this indicates is that the virus is less deadly than we think it
is as the Case Fatality Rate or CFR in Iceland is currently about
.0025 or 1/4 of 1% whereas in the USA the CFR is about 1.5%. But what
this implies is that to a very rough approximation, for every
confirmed case in the USA, there are about five infected people who
are not showing symptoms and still potentially spreading the virus.
So the virus seems to be spreading like wildfire through dry brush but
we can only see 1/6th of the flames. Maybe it will burn itself out and
the USA will achieve herd immunity in a few months like Dylan suggested.
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