[ExI] sturgis - washington post

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat


>...Where are the counterfactual projections for that coming from?

The number comes from the suspected number of people who caught at the rally.  If you take half million-randomly chosen yanks and compare to the number traceable to the rally, it appears the rally catch rate was about half the average.


>...It seems like the article is saying there's been a jump in cases in specific states that can be linked back to the rally. Do you disagree?

I do.  There are confounding factors of course: school was starting back up as the bikers returned home.  There is a university close to Sturgis.  Their catch rate was more than twice the Sturgis rate, such that they had to shut it back down after one week.

>> I don’t know why the epidemiologists will not write about that.

>...Maybe because they disagree with the counterfactual scenario you hint at above. And maybe their disagreement is reasonable.  Regards,  Dan


Disagreement is fine, but where are their scholarly articles?  People study this sort of thing professionally.  Where are their comparisons between the grim predictions and the outcome?  Why was the catch rate lower and the fatality rate lower than expected?  Why did so few Sturgisers perish?

spike