[ExI] dead bikers

[Stuart LaForge]

I agree Sturgis was an interesting experiment. Here are my fast and  
loose approximations: For the past few weeks the USA has averaged  
about 40k new cases a day. So assuming an infectious window of 5 days,  
that is about 200k people infected and infectious at any one time.  
That means that about 1 in 1500 Americans is actively spreading virus.  
So if 460k bikers attended the rally, than about 300 bikers should  
have brought COVID-19 with them when they attended. So if those 300  
bikers spent a week carousing with half a million people and only  
infected 260 new cases, that suggests an R0 of less than 1. For that  
many people to spend that much time together shirking masks and social  
distancing rules and still having an R0 that low means that most of  
the bikers were already herd-immune. I think vaccine or not, the  
American portion of the pandemic will be done by winter.

Stuart LaForge