[ExI] down by the riverside

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> 

 

>…I have people I care about who live in Riverside County CA as well.  I went looking at their data.  It doesn’t separate nursing home covid fatalities either (Santa Clara is the only county I have found so far which does that.)…Damn this is frustrating.  spike

 

 

 

 

I have a little homework assignment for data-enabled volunteers among us.

 

If you live in a county of at least about half a million proles, go to your county health department website and see if they offer statistics such as covid fatalities per day, and if they break it out by nursing homers vs non.  If so, there might be a graph that looks kinda like this, where the green bars are the homers and the blue nots:

 

 



 

OK then, follow my reasoning please.  If herd immunity is here or nigh, then we know what the covid death dashboard will do: the bars will get shorter and farther spaced.  But think of the ratio of the homers (green) to nons (blue.)

 

If my reasoning is correct, the early covid deaths should be mostly nons: the blue team gets it first and worst.  But you can see there eventually it is pretty evenly balanced.  So far that agrees with my understanding.  

 

But since we count the WITHs and OFs as the same, then later, if herd immunity is kicking in, most of the confirmed cases have long since been confirmed.  The non-homers don’t die often.  Of all my friends and acquaintances, none of them die often.  Steve Van Sickle did, but none other that that fine lad.  He apparently didn’t have covid (had he been a confirmed covid case, his cryonic suspension might have gone much better than it did (covid could have saved his future life?  (oh we miss Steve (smart as a whip and a really nice gentleman he was.))))

 

In any case… nursing homers do die tragically often, and they are not going to give up that habit just because a known homer-killer has left the building.

 

Over time, confirmed cases accumulate.  If any fatality who was a confirmed covid case counts as a covid fatality, then herd immunity would result in that graph up there will eventually turn green.  Now it is about equal, but the right side of that graph should be more homers than non-homers, so it should transition from blue to green.  Reasoning: people continue to perish in nursing homes, even if the virus runs its course, but the non-homers wouldn’t as much.

 

Smart amateur immunologists among us, does that sound reasonable to you?  Why or why not?

 

spike

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