[ExI] bikers again and smallpox

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox

You are too early in counting biker death by weeks.

Keith


OK no worries, we shall wait on that.  We are in time to count the new case rate however.  With 260 new cases from the Sturgis crowd, it is reasonable to expect about 2 to 3 more fatalities, which would still have us well below their stay-at-home neighbors by more than a factor of 2.

This brings up another interesting case: if the ordinary fatality rate now returns to normal for the bikers unrelated to the rally, they will always be fatalities of those who attended Sturgis.

spike