[ExI] bikers again and smallpox

[SR Ballard]

Spike, correlation does not imply causation. 

The states probably didn’t shut down simply because they didn’t need to. 

About half of them have very low population density, and have a lack of cities.

SR Ballard

> On Sep 7, 2020, at 12:02 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> 
> Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox
> 
> You are too early in counting biker death by weeks.
> 
> Keith
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi Keith,
> 
> Why are we counting the one guy?  What is the range when we can start to when we can end that count?  Isn't it too soon on him?  How do we know he didn't catch at home before the rally?  And if he did catch before the rally, there should have been others who caught before the rally and are dying now.  Perhaps that's the preselection effect.
> 
> The Sturgis rally was in South Dakota, one of seven states which did not issue shutdown orders.  South Dakota was (I think) the only state which shut down nothing.  The other six states had very limited shutdowns and no stay-home orders.
> 
> The states which did not shut down, ranked by covid deaths per million population are
> 
> Iowa            Rank 23            death per million 396
> Arkansas        Rank 30            death per million 296
> Nebraska        Rank 38            death per million 209
> North Dakota        Rank 39            death per million 205
> South Dakota        Rank 41            death per million 196
> Utah            Rank 44            death per million 132
> Wyoming        Rank 49            death per million 73
> 
> US average covid death per million: 584
> 
> Source:
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
> 
> OK then.  States which did not shut down didn't really have all that much in fatalities per million.
> 
> I have some ponderin to do.
> 
> spike
> 
> 
> 
> 
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