[ExI] bikers again and smallpox

[Dylan Distasio]

I'm curious how they can accurately estimate health care costs.  Even
assuming their case linkage model is correct, they have little idea how
many people will actually end up requiring treatment without detailed
demographic info.

Instead, I see in the paper they "conservatively" assume that even with no
fatalities, it would cost $46,000 per patient in healthcare costs.  This is
a preposterous number that assumes no asymptomatic cases, and no real
insight into how many actually need to be admitted to a hospital.

If their case model is anywhere near as sloppy as their cost model, the
entire thing is suspect, but I can't speak to that.  Maybe someone else
here can attempt to pick it apart and see if it holds up.

On Tue, Sep 8, 2020, 8:49 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which
> drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than
> 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute
> of Labor Economics.   The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion
> in health-care costs, they wrote.
>
>
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08
>
> Keith
>
> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 4:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat
> > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox
> >
> >
> >
> > Of course he does Bill! But just because someone knows something doesn’t
> mean that people don’t get excited and forget to consider it.
> >
> > SR
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > We are all among friends here.  Fair game, play ball!
> >
> > I am seriously questioning the efficacy of the shutdowns, that will
> freely admit.  Those don’t seem to have been such a great solution in the
> Europeans states either.  I can see those do enormous damage that we will
> be seeing for years to come.  Perhaps we will not allow them to recur.
> >
> > spike
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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