[ExI] bikers again and smallpox

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Wed Sep 9 03:16:30 UTC 2020


 

 

> On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox

 

…

 

>…Instead, I see in the paper they "conservatively" assume that even with no fatalities…

 

Hi Dylan, what if… they never do find enough covid fatalities among the attendees at Sturgis to match the average.  We are told there was one so far, but we don’t know if he already had it when he arrived, which isn’t the fault of the rally, it was just something he was doing while the virus was replicating within.  If they don’t find some fatalities in those attendees, we have a vaccine, no needles required.

 

>…If their case model is anywhere near as sloppy as their cost model, the entire thing is suspect, but I can't speak to that.  Maybe someone else here can attempt to pick it apart and see if it holds up….

This seems so simple to me, even a rocket scientist can understand it.  They aren’t comparing it to the average and dividing by 700.

Take the US fatality rate and divide by 700, because about 1/700th of the US population went to Sturgis.  Take the fatality rate in the US, about 800 a day dead.  We should be seeing about 1000/700 or about 1.1 or 1.2 a day from those who attended.  So far… 1.  Total.  1 guy.  Why do these bikers keep not dying?

Sure it is too early to tell, OK.  But even if we take that into account, there should be fatalities from those who caught it before, went to Sturgis during the incubation period and perished afterwards, which might be what happened to the one feller.  Ja?

We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this.

spike

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