[ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity?

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 8:27 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> It's unlikely Sweden has achieved herd immunity, The most recent studies
> indicate only 20% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to the virus,
> that's about the same number as those in New York and London, and most
> think you need at least 70% to achieve herd immunity.
>

### These are silly numbers. But, anyway  - why did the new case count in
Sweden drop to nearly zero? Did they suddenly start wearing masks not only
on buses? Socially distanced themselves even more? Got a visit from the
fairy godmother? No - they achieved herd immunity because that's how large
epidemics end. The epidemic petering out at 20% cumulative exposure levels
proves you don't need 70% for herd immunity, and this level of herd
immunity is very similar to the regular flu.

-------------------------------

> As for deaths per 100,000 people, Sweden had 57, Norway had 5, Denmark had
> 11, the UK had 70, and the US had 50. But of course this pandemic is far
> from over so it will be sometime before we know what the final butcher's
> bill is.
>
>
### Yes, there are these order-of-magnitude differences in fatality rates
between seemingly similar countries, not in the least explained by
government policies. Is Norway and a bunch of other European countries
going to smolder for the next couple of years until they get to the same
level of immunity as the countries that were hit harder?

Future will tell.

Rafal
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