[ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity?

[Henrik Ohrstrom]

Den ons 9 sep. 2020 08:56Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> skrev:

>
> ### These are silly numbers. But, anyway  - why did the new case count in
> Sweden drop to nearly zero? Did they suddenly start wearing masks not only
> on buses?
>
Nope, still no masks, not even on buses.

No - they achieved herd immunity because that's how large epidemics end.
> The epidemic petering out at 20% cumulative exposure levels proves you
> don't need 70% for herd immunity, and this level of herd immunity is very
> similar to the regular flu.
>
It is very interesting, most of the places that where hit hard like NY,
Barcelona and by all means, Stockholm, have low infection rates now. Madrid
had quite few cases first time round. Nothing looks like a true second wave
anywhere. All the nasty times are had in places that wasn't hit in the
spring. So in Sweden, many places had zero sick until late this summer.
Certainly in Norway who now have a higher infection rate than Sweden. So
high in fact that we should now lock down vs them according to current
Norwegian rules.....
They are not happy about this.....
So herd immunity? Maybe, also in NY and other places.

>
>
> ### Yes, there are these order-of-magnitude differences in fatality rates
> between seemingly similar countries, not in the least explained by
> government policies. Is Norway and a bunch of other European countries
> going to smolder for the next couple of years until they get to the same
> level of immunity as the countries that were hit harder?
>
Since covid will be one of the fevers in childhood, it will smolder indeed.


> Future will tell.
>
> Rafal
>

Wha really interests me now is the fact that some serious percentage of
${population} has neutralising Tcells without any known infection.
There might be a vaccinia equivalent out there, find that one and the
vaccine questions are all but solved.

/Henrik

>
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