[ExI] new covid case rates

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Apr 6, 2021, at 9:58 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
> Subject: Re: [ExI] new covid case rates
> 
> >…Much of this discussion seems predicated on something like that ‘if a state or region has stated policy X (with regard to COVID), then there’s a total or virtually royal compliance with policy X in said state or region.’
> 
> Policy is something they can talk about all they want.  Citizens are obligated to follow law, as is government.
> 

Obligated or not, compliance is always another matter. I presume you have speed limits posted in your area. What’s the compliance rate with these? Can one presume that merely because the speed limit posted is X that every vehicle or enough vehicles never exceed X? 

(Also, it’s fanciful to say ‘citizens’ above. COVID policies and many other apply to non-citizens as well. And it’d be a very stupid infectious disease policy if it only applies to subjects — er, citizens and their overlords — er, those in government.)

> >…I recall Spike agreeing with me weeks (or months?) ago that California’s stated policy wasn’t exactly followed by everyone in that state, especially not in red districts…
> 
> Ja.  Red districts did better than the blue districts, even when under similar guidelines, but it isn’t clear why exactly.  I would speculate that districts that are more tightly packed are more blue and the flu travels better where people are more tightly packed.  But we don’t really know for sure if the red/blue apparent correlation with higher covid rates are really two effects of the same cause.  I suspect that’s it. 
> 
> >…Why presume that Florida is completely different here?
> 
> It isn’t different here.
> 
> >… There needs to be some means of figuring out levels of compliance before judging specific measures — much less pointing out one place is better than another when one doesn’t know this level, no?  Regards, Dan
> 
> Ja, we don’t really know, even after all this time.  We do know only a few things: sending infected people into nursing homes was a fatal mistake.  New Jersey and New York both did that and are among the hardest-hit jurisdictions in the world.
> 
They also have very high population densities for the US, no?

Regards,

Dan
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