[ExI] new covid case rates

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Apr 6, 2021, at 10:31 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
> 
>  
> >…Obligated or not, compliance is always another matter. I presume you have speed limits posted in your area. What’s the compliance rate with these? Can one presume that merely because the speed limit posted is X that every vehicle or enough vehicles never exceed X? 
>  
> Ja of course.  It is improper to compare covid-related policy to speed limits however, for speed limits are law, passed by legislatures.  As far as I know, no state legislatures anywhere passed covid law.  They handed that back to the governor, who does not have the authority to make law.

This is a species distinction. First, I mentioned policy — not law. Policy in this regard can be more inclusive. But let’s leave that aside. You bring up law as if that’s significant, but law is important because why? Because ‘citizens’ are obligated to follow law? But what does this matter when I pointed out there are plenty of laws in your sense — I mean laws passed by an authority you accept — that don’t have total or near total compliance? I used speed limits simply because they’re an obvious example. (There’s a reason there are hoards of enforcers out there: people don’t comply simply because a law is passed by a process you accept — even one they accept. Heck, government agents often don’t comply with the law. It’s fantasy to believe that because something is a law that it will be obeyed. Were merely being a law enough to compel obedience, what need for cops and myriad other agents checking for noncompliance?)

Mask and distancing policies are much the same. You disagree? Well, let’s say the legislatures all got together and passed laws mandating masks and distancing. Do you believe all the people across the states would suddenly follow such mandates? Or do you think, as I do, that compliance would vary both by location and likely by where enforcement was dependable? In other words, much like speed limits. (Add to this, penalties would likely depend on the enforcers’ whims and who did the violating.)

My point was merely that you have areas where there are mask mandates and the like — call them what you will — but what people do doesn’t always match the stated policy. (This would be exactly the same if the constitution you worship were amended to mandate masks, etc. for everyone: some people would simply not comply and many of them would face little penalty for compliance even if, say, said amendment mandates the severe penalties for noncompliance.)

> >>…New Jersey and New York both did that and are among the hardest-hit jurisdictions in the world.
> >…They also have very high population densities for the US, no?
> Regards,  Dan
>  
>  
> Ja, which is what leads me to think the apparent correlation is really two effects of the same cause.
>  
> This is a good point for New York, for that state is a huge metropolis with the rest of it generally rural.  Check Google maps street view and see it.  Upstate New York is country roads with not much on them.  OK, suppose a governor wants to make rules that will work for both the city and the rest of the state.  How?  Suggestions: don’t send known-infected patients into nursing homes, and don’t intentionally distort fatality statistics.

I’m aware. And NJ has areas with very low population, but both states have some of the highest concentrations — in their densely populated regions — of people in the nation. That’s all I meant. So, all else being equal, I’d expect COVID cases to be higher in those places.

Regards,

Dan
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