[ExI] probability

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sat Dec 18 00:26:58 UTC 2021



…> On Behalf Of Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat

>…It’s much more basic with many than not being able to use Bayes’ theorem. I have met people in the last year who are unable to compare two probabilities. Informed that there is a 1/100 chance of dying from COVID and 1/million chance of dying from the vaccine, their response has been, “I still don’t want the vaccine, because what if I’m that 1 in a million?”


Stathis Papaioannou



Informed by who?  Statis, if informed by someone that there is a 1/100 chance of dying from covid, that is easily disproven with public domain data.  If someone claimed there is 1 a million risk of dying from the vaccine, it asks the question: how is that calculated?  We don’t know the long-term effects of that vaccine.  We know the risk of dying immediately perhaps (actually we don’t (because that information in the USA is 4th amendment protected.))


By reducing it to the numbers you call out, it sounds a lot like one-size-fits-all medicine.  But the real picture is far more complex.  I would develop a distrust of the person calling out those numbers.







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