# [ExI] probability

Stathis Papaioannou stathisp at gmail.com
Sat Dec 18 01:22:45 UTC 2021

```On Sat, 18 Dec 2021 at 11:32, spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> *…*> *On Behalf Of *Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat
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> >…It’s much more basic with many than not being able to use Bayes’
> theorem. I have met people in the last year who are unable to compare two
> probabilities. Informed that there is a 1/100 chance of dying from COVID
> and 1/million chance of dying from the vaccine, their response has been, “I
> still don’t want the vaccine, because what if I’m that 1 in a million?”
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> Stathis Papaioannou
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> Informed by who?  Statis, if informed by someone that there is a 1/100
> chance of dying from covid, that is easily disproven with public domain
> data.  If someone claimed there is 1 a million risk of dying from the
> vaccine, it asks the question: how is that calculated?  We don’t know the
> long-term effects of that vaccine.  We know the risk of dying immediately
> perhaps (actually we don’t (because that information in the USA is 4th
> amendment protected.))
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> By reducing it to the numbers you call out, it sounds a lot like
> one-size-fits-all medicine.  But the real picture is far more complex.  I
> would develop a distrust of the person calling out those numbers.
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My point is that they don’t dispute the numbers, they say that they are
more afraid of the vaccine even if the numbers are correct. They have a
problem with mathematics, or perhaps they have a superstitious belief that
despite the numbers they are personally at greater risk from the vaccine.

> --
Stathis Papaioannou
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