[ExI] probability

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sat Dec 18 01:56:21 UTC 2021




> On Behalf Of Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat

By reducing it to the numbers you call out, it sounds a lot like one-size-fits-all medicine.  But the real picture is far more complex.  I would develop a distrust of the person calling out those numbers.

>…My point is that they don’t dispute the numbers, they say that they are more afraid of the vaccine even if the numbers are correct. They have a problem with mathematics, or perhaps they have a superstitious belief that despite the numbers they are personally at greater risk from the vaccine.


Stathis Papaioannou



Ja.  My point is that we don’t know what the long-term risk model looks like.  It is speculative, and probably supported by theory as we know it, however… we who choose to take the vaccines are experimental pilots and should recognize the fact.


Consider how much of the theory has already been disproven.  When the vaccine became available, we were told it was one and done.  False, now it is generally acknowledged this isn’t even a vaccine in the traditional sense, it is immunotherapy.  There are known risk models associated with immunotherapy.  I am not a doctor, so I will leave it at that.  We were told that immunized people would be unlikely to catch, or if they did, they would be unlikely to die.  Well, that turned out to be only partially true as my family found out when my step-mother who was double immunized, caught and perished of covid a coupla months ago.


Many countries are compelling their citizens to take the vaccines, even the young, whose immune systems are robust and able to deal with covid, yet these same people have the most to lose in the long run if there are long-term unforeseen health consequences for injecting mRNA.  We don’t really know for sure if that will have long-term consequences, for we don’t have that data.  It probably won’t.  But the risk model is still unknown.  To call out a number, particularly one as small as 1 in a million, reduces the credibility of the person claiming it.



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