[ExI] Probability, covid, online education

Dave S sparge at gmail.com
Mon Dec 20 16:46:00 UTC 2021

I just ran across this blog post that touches on a few things we've talked
about recently:


[image: covid-prob.jpg]

*When a headline says "half of hospitalizations are vaccinated" it is
innumerate fearmongering that will make people who are bad at math
misinterpret that as "vaccines are only 50% effective", or worse lies.An
increasing ratio of hospitalized vaccinated is an inevitable result of
increasing vaccination rates. It is a marker of success, not failure.E.g.:
"About two-thirds of people who die on UK roads are wearing a seatbelt, but
this is a consequence of usage rates of nearly 99%."Explaining probability,
statistics and combinatorics to the public is really, really hard. This
stuff is extremely nonintuitive even without dealing with the grifters.
Here's a really good, easy to understand video
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM> on Bayes theorem.*


The video is by 3Blue1Brown, who did the Newton's fractal video Spike
posted here.

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