[ExI] those who are going to, did already

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at 4:32 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> The covid pandemic was different than most in that the fatalities were
> concentrated in the elderly and people with a lot of other health problems,
> as opposed to something like the plague, which took people without regard
> to previous state of health.  The plague would leave behind a smaller
> population whose overall health was about the same as before.  But the
> covid pandemic can be seen to have left a surviving smaller population
> whose overall health is better and average age is younger.
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> Do check my reasoning on that last conjecture.
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> The CDC has a remarkable data site which illustrates what I think we are
> seeing.  Here’s the data from the past four years:
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> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
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> Zooming in, notice what has been happening recently:
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> As the vaccine drives the population toward herd immunity, the blue bars
> will go away, but the real signal catching my attention is how far below
> the orange (average) line are the green bars.  They are below the average
> mortality by a huge margin for the past several weeks.  We can ignore the
> data from about the last coupla weeks because it takes a while to get all
> the reports processed, but even if we ignore those, the average mortality
> is down.
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> During the pandemic, we know there were plenty of suicides, perhaps
> because of despondency over a failed business.  I lost a young second
> cousin that way.  But at some point, most of those who are susceptible to
> suicide have done it already, leaving fewer suicidal people in the general
> population.
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> Does not this chart illustrate that covid left behind a younger healthier
> population?
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### Indeed, this seems to be the case. Covid burned through nursing homes
and hastened the deaths of hundreds of thousands of residents but only by a
half year or so, given that the average resident life expectancy in a
non-pandemic year is about 13 months. I expect that in the next year
hundreds of thousands of elderly will make the transition to nursing homes,
as this is the way of aging flesh, and the mortality rate will bounce back
to the long-term trend line.

Rafal
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