[ExI] those who are going to, did already

[John Grigg]

My understanding is that Covid fairly often is being found to leave
permanent damage to the bodies/organs of the young and middle aged people
it infects, along with the elderly. The brain, the heart, lungs, etc., can
suffer long-term harm. It is definitely an even nastier virus than it
appears to be at first glance...

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210401/many-show-long-term-organ-damage-after-covid

On Sat, Jun 12, 2021 at 4:04 PM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
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> On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at 4:32 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
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>> The covid pandemic was different than most in that the fatalities were
>> concentrated in the elderly and people with a lot of other health problems,
>> as opposed to something like the plague, which took people without regard
>> to previous state of health.  The plague would leave behind a smaller
>> population whose overall health was about the same as before.  But the
>> covid pandemic can be seen to have left a surviving smaller population
>> whose overall health is better and average age is younger.
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>> Do check my reasoning on that last conjecture.
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>> The CDC has a remarkable data site which illustrates what I think we are
>> seeing.  Here’s the data from the past four years:
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>> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
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>> Zooming in, notice what has been happening recently:
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>> As the vaccine drives the population toward herd immunity, the blue bars
>> will go away, but the real signal catching my attention is how far below
>> the orange (average) line are the green bars.  They are below the average
>> mortality by a huge margin for the past several weeks.  We can ignore the
>> data from about the last coupla weeks because it takes a while to get all
>> the reports processed, but even if we ignore those, the average mortality
>> is down.
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>> During the pandemic, we know there were plenty of suicides, perhaps
>> because of despondency over a failed business.  I lost a young second
>> cousin that way.  But at some point, most of those who are susceptible to
>> suicide have done it already, leaving fewer suicidal people in the general
>> population.
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>> Does not this chart illustrate that covid left behind a younger healthier
>> population?
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>
> ### Indeed, this seems to be the case. Covid burned through nursing homes
> and hastened the deaths of hundreds of thousands of residents but only by a
> half year or so, given that the average resident life expectancy in a
> non-pandemic year is about 13 months. I expect that in the next year
> hundreds of thousands of elderly will make the transition to nursing homes,
> as this is the way of aging flesh, and the mortality rate will bounce back
> to the long-term trend line.
>
> Rafal
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