[ExI] vaccinations vs new cases

[spike at rainier66.com]

> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] vaccinations vs new cases

 

from the new york times:

 


The coronavirus is devastating Israel’s ultra-Orthodox communities. They represent 12.6 percent of the population, but 28 percent of infections.


 

On Fri, Mar 5, 2021 at 9:26 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

 

 

Even taking that into account and assuming the ultra orthodox uniformly refuse vaccination, that still doesn’t account for this signal.

 

If we make a simplified model and assume no vaccinations among ultras, then we have at least 56% of the not-ultras who have had two doses of the vaccine (this is as pessimistic an assumption as possible, for in reality more than 56% have at least one dose.)  If at least 56% of the 87% of Israelis have 90% to 95% immunity, their new case rate should be lower than this, a lot lower.  72% of the new infections are in the not-ultra Israeli population.

 

spike

 

 

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