[ExI] 30 Solutions to the Fermi Paradox

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Mar 17, 2021, at 4:06 PM, BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> On Wed, 17 Mar 2021 at 20:38, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> 
>> I read Stephen Webb’s book years ago. It has 50 ‘solutions’ in that edition, but the update now has 75!
>> 
>> The problem with the huge distances argument is time and numbers: given enough time and enough attempts (by the same or other civilizations), you’d expect some to carry out expansion. You would unless their numbers are really low (there are no other or few space-faring civilizations) and they either don’t last or are very young. You have to explain why the numbers are so low or all space-faring civilizations are young (or both).
>> 
>> (If the numbers of them are not low and they are not all or mostly as young or younger than ours, then you have to also explain why they all manage not to do it. Every last one, since even one capable of doing it slowly would likely colonize or visit the whole galaxy in a few hundred thousand years. Imagine, for instance, most civilizations opt to stay home, but one weird one doesn’t and that one itches to colonize everything that’s not occupied or where there’s no pushback. That one would quickly — well, less than a million years — colonize the galaxy.)
>> 
>> But you know know all this, no?
>> 
>> Regards, Dan
>> _________________________________________
> 
> Yes, I've heard that calculation. But I like to think about the practicalities.
> Slow exploration means that the journey to the next star will exceed
> the lifespan of the crew. That is not very appealing to explorers who
> won't get to do any exploring.  To get round this problem, ideas like
> generation ships or crew hibernation for centuries and / or vastly
> increased lifespans are suggested.  None of which are very attractive.
> That's why these centuries long treks could be handed over to AIs.
> But interstellar ships don't come cheap. It would take planet-scale
> resources to create these ships and require a planetary population to
> agree to assign their resources to the project. Theoretically
> possible, but would it ever actually happen?
> The project plans always seem to require the box (or boxes) that say
> 'Magic happens here'.

It’s all speculation, but I think the paradox relies on numbers and time. Given enough spacefaring civilizations — AI or no — and enough time, it seems plausible one or more of them would’ve colonized the galaxy (or left some unambiguous traces) by now. Since you don’t see this, it means there are few or there hasn’t been enough time. Brining up something like the copernican principle —  you’re not a privileged observer in cosmic terms — it seems hard to accept that humans have come early to the game or that observers like humans are rare.

I also don’t think interstellar travel requires any magic. Generation ships or hibernation or sending out AI/nanotechnology seems plausible. Costs here depend on future advances and resource availabilities that don’t seem off the scale. (Heck, during our lifetime, the cost of spaceflight increased because basically it was a oligopolistic market — not because spaceflight is inherently costly. It’s only dropping now because a handful of disruptive players have entered the market and some minor policy changes by one major consumer (NASA) of spaceflight. Had history been a little different, humans might already have started a few scale settlements across the solar system.)

Regards,

Dan