[ExI] tragic dataset

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun Nov 7 17:57:25 UTC 2021



Do let me offer some BOTECs please.


Texas has a population of about 30 million proles.  Their new covid case
rate is about 3k a day so about one in 10k per day, new infection rate.


The Travis Scott concert was attended by over 50k, and can presume (I hope)
that at least some of the attendees had enough sense to not get in that
deadly mosh pit, but let us round down for good measure, to about 50k and
recognize that we should see on the average about 5 new infections a day
from a crowd that size, ja?


I used this technique for first-estimate analysis of the Sturgis rally in
2020: take the average background infection rate, multiply by the number of
attendees and the product is the expected value of new infections one might
see if all these stayed home.  I am getting about 5.  These are generally
young people (sheesh would hope anyone old enough to have any sense wouldn't
go into that crushing morass of  raving protoplasm) so one might consider
them better than average for resistance to virus, but we can assume away
that advantage for good measure, ja?


I look at that and would estimate every infected person in that (literally)
crushing mob would spread to a coupla dozen around her.  So. I am thinking
perhaps 60 cases traceable to Astroworld?  I will stay with 60, even given
that my 5 infections estimate is the expected infection rate per day.  I
used that to estimate havers, knowing that this is the background rate of
daily catchers.  I suspect this is a waaay underestimate of havers, but. I
am willing to stay with the very conservative estimate of 60 new catchers
traceable to Astroworld.


If there aren't at least 60 new cases that trace back to this concert, then
I must conclude that outdoor crowd events are not spreaders.  If 60 or less,
then the notion of outdoor social distancing and outdoor masking are
irrelevant and silly.  60 new cases is my comfortable threshold, which is
estimated as conservatively as I can justify.  Other estimates?


Virus hipsters, ideas please?



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