[ExI] i got friends in low places

[spike at rainier66.com]

Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity, might
find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and people
I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.

 

This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm activity in
the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.

 

We are on track to set a new record if we don't get a named storm in the
next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them
together didn't amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be
the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.

 

The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently
organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the
longest span between named storms. 

 

https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1

 

 

 



 

 

I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my recently
explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to me that a
Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic hurricane
prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman covariance
matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or ocean surface
temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the wrong way,
which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the covariance
matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman filter
predictive confidence goes. down.

 

Whoops.  That wasn't supposta happen.

 

In any case. lotta times science doesn't move forward until a favored old
theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some excitement
outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!

 

spike

 

 

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