[ExI] i got friends in low places

[BillK]

On Tue, 23 Aug 2022 at 18:29, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity, might find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and people I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.
> This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm activity in the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.
> We are on track to set a new record if we don’t get a named storm in the next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them together didn’t amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.
> The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the longest span between named storms.
>
> https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1
>
> I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my recently explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to me that a Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic hurricane prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman covariance matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or ocean surface temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the wrong way, which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the covariance matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman filter predictive confidence goes… down.
>
> Whoops.  That wasn’t supposta happen.
>
> In any case… lotta times science doesn’t move forward until a favored old theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some excitement outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________


Well, you've heard of the Butterfly Effect,
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
So, out in the garden this morning, I've just had a couple of violent
sneezes that really cleared the dust out of my ears. That could be the
start of a hurricane headed to Florida in the next week or two.  :)
Just wait and see!


BillK