[ExI] i got friends in low places

[William Flynn Wallace]

Forget Florida - here in central MS we are expecting 8 to 10 inches of rain
today and it has been raining now for two weeks and another week expected -
at least.  bill w

On Wed, Aug 24, 2022 at 9:18 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Tue, 23 Aug 2022 at 18:29, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity,
> might find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and
> people I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.
> > This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm
> activity in the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.
> > We are on track to set a new record if we don’t get a named storm in the
> next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them
> together didn’t amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be
> the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.
> > The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently
> organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the
> longest span between named storms.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1
> >
> > I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my
> recently explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to
> me that a Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic
> hurricane prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman
> covariance matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or
> ocean surface temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the
> wrong way, which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the
> covariance matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman
> filter predictive confidence goes… down.
> >
> > Whoops.  That wasn’t supposta happen.
> >
> > In any case… lotta times science doesn’t move forward until a favored
> old theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some
> excitement outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!
> >
> > spike
> >
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Well, you've heard of the Butterfly Effect,
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
> So, out in the garden this morning, I've just had a couple of violent
> sneezes that really cleared the dust out of my ears. That could be the
> start of a hurricane headed to Florida in the next week or two.  :)
> Just wait and see!
>
>
> BillK
>
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