[ExI] Another Fermi Paradox Paper

[Giulio Prisco]

On 2022. May 19., Thu at 20:33, Darin Sunley via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The Fermi Paradox is really easy to solve, once you appreciate even the
> most conservative possible parameters of a technological singularity.
>
> The problem is the universe is really really old, such that the odds of
> two independently developing technological species being aligned in their
> development even to within one million years is literally astronomical.
>
> And therein lies the problem. Because if we're a million years ahead of
> them, they're still pre-linguistic Stone Age hunter gatherers, and we
> wouldn't be able to detect them.
>
> And if they're a million years ahead of us, we're currently running as the
> screensaver on their desktop computers, and they have absolute control as
> to whether they want to be detected or not.
>
> There is no in-between.
>

My take:

https://www.turingchurch.com/p/et-is-smarter-than-enrico-fermi-and?s=r



> On Thu, May 19, 2022 at 4:27 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> The fact that we can’t find aliens may not be due to us, but to them!
>> By Charlie Elliott   18 May 2022
>>
>> <
>> http://techzle.com/the-fact-that-we-cant-find-aliens-may-not-be-due-to-us-but-to-them
>> >
>>
>> Quotes:
>> We haven’t found any aliens yet. And that may have a macabre reason;
>> the aliens are (before we can see them) doomed to destroy their
>> civilization or – in the best case scenario – put their expansionism
>> on the back burner.
>>
>> Researchers come up with this hypothesis in the Journal of the Royal
>> Society Interface. The hypothesis is loosely based on what we see
>> happening in cities here on Earth. “Other scientists have already
>> determined that cities are growing in ways that are unsustainable in
>> the long term,” said study researcher Michael Wong. Scientias.nl from.
>> “It is because resource consumption increases disproportionately as
>> cities grow.” And that is obviously a problem. Because it means that
>> there will come a time when cities will, for example, need more energy
>> than is available. “It results in crises we call ‘singularities’ where
>> population and energy demand increase endlessly over a finite period
>> of time.” In such a scenario, civilization is doomed to run into
>> shortages, causing – without intervention – the entire system to
>> collapse.
>>
>> Innovation
>>
>> The only way to avert or at least postpone such a crisis is to come up
>> with innovations. But because the population and energy demand in a
>> growing city are increasing exponentially, those innovations will have
>> to follow each other more and more quickly if we want to prevent a
>> crisis. And therein lies the challenge. Not just for us. But also
>> possible, the researchers argue in their research article, for aliens.
>> “We hypothesize that planetary civilizations behave like cities,” Wong
>> said. “And if that’s the case, sooner or later they’ll hit a limit
>> that limits their growth. We call this boundary ‘asymptotic burnout’:
>> an ultimate crisis in which the time that elapses between
>> singularities (or crises, ed.) is shorter than the time between
>> innovations.” In other words, the aliens are innovating too slowly to
>> escape their self-created fate.
>>
>> Downfall or other priorities
>>
>> When such an asymptotic burnout threatens, there are actually two
>> options, say Wong and colleague Stuart Bartlett. One: the alien
>> civilization is either oblivious or burying its head in the sand and
>> completely collapses. Or, two, the aliens become aware that they are
>> headed for their doom and change course. “They prioritize homeostasis:
>> a state in which cosmic expansion is no longer a goal.” In both
>> scenarios, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to detect the
>> aliens from a considerable distance. Because in the first scenario,
>> they, or at least the advanced and therefore detectable civilization
>> they once formed, are no more. And in the second scenario, they are no
>> longer focused on exploring space or increasing and proclaiming their
>> presence, but on preserving what they have. “Unbridled growth and
>> productivity gives way to a focus on health, balance and maximum
>> longevity,” says Wong.
>> --------------------------
>>
>> Original Research Paper here:-
>> <https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2022.0029>
>>
>> This idea sounds reasonable to me. Currently our civilisation is
>> looking for a new innovation - Fusion energy - to catch up with our
>> energy requirements. Reducing oil consumption cannot be replaced by
>> solar power and wind power. If a new energy resource cannot be found,
>> then the shortages could well lead to new World Wars. A shrinkage of
>> our civilisation, with the remnants forced to 'live within their
>> means' no longer seems out of the question.
>>
>> BillK
>>
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