[ExI] Another Fermi Paradox Paper

[Darin Sunley]

The Fermi Paradox is really easy to solve, once you appreciate even the
most conservative possible parameters of a technological singularity.

The problem is the universe is really really old, such that the odds of two
independently developing technological species being aligned in their
development even to within one million years is literally astronomical.

And therein lies the problem. Because if we're a million years ahead of
them, they're still pre-linguistic Stone Age hunter gatherers, and we
wouldn't be able to detect them.

And if they're a million years ahead of us, we're currently running as the
screensaver on their desktop computers, and they have absolute control as
to whether they want to be detected or not.

There is no in-between.

On Thu, May 19, 2022 at 4:27 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The fact that we can’t find aliens may not be due to us, but to them!
> By Charlie Elliott   18 May 2022
>
> <
> http://techzle.com/the-fact-that-we-cant-find-aliens-may-not-be-due-to-us-but-to-them
> >
>
> Quotes:
> We haven’t found any aliens yet. And that may have a macabre reason;
> the aliens are (before we can see them) doomed to destroy their
> civilization or – in the best case scenario – put their expansionism
> on the back burner.
>
> Researchers come up with this hypothesis in the Journal of the Royal
> Society Interface. The hypothesis is loosely based on what we see
> happening in cities here on Earth. “Other scientists have already
> determined that cities are growing in ways that are unsustainable in
> the long term,” said study researcher Michael Wong. Scientias.nl from.
> “It is because resource consumption increases disproportionately as
> cities grow.” And that is obviously a problem. Because it means that
> there will come a time when cities will, for example, need more energy
> than is available. “It results in crises we call ‘singularities’ where
> population and energy demand increase endlessly over a finite period
> of time.” In such a scenario, civilization is doomed to run into
> shortages, causing – without intervention – the entire system to
> collapse.
>
> Innovation
>
> The only way to avert or at least postpone such a crisis is to come up
> with innovations. But because the population and energy demand in a
> growing city are increasing exponentially, those innovations will have
> to follow each other more and more quickly if we want to prevent a
> crisis. And therein lies the challenge. Not just for us. But also
> possible, the researchers argue in their research article, for aliens.
> “We hypothesize that planetary civilizations behave like cities,” Wong
> said. “And if that’s the case, sooner or later they’ll hit a limit
> that limits their growth. We call this boundary ‘asymptotic burnout’:
> an ultimate crisis in which the time that elapses between
> singularities (or crises, ed.) is shorter than the time between
> innovations.” In other words, the aliens are innovating too slowly to
> escape their self-created fate.
>
> Downfall or other priorities
>
> When such an asymptotic burnout threatens, there are actually two
> options, say Wong and colleague Stuart Bartlett. One: the alien
> civilization is either oblivious or burying its head in the sand and
> completely collapses. Or, two, the aliens become aware that they are
> headed for their doom and change course. “They prioritize homeostasis:
> a state in which cosmic expansion is no longer a goal.” In both
> scenarios, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to detect the
> aliens from a considerable distance. Because in the first scenario,
> they, or at least the advanced and therefore detectable civilization
> they once formed, are no more. And in the second scenario, they are no
> longer focused on exploring space or increasing and proclaiming their
> presence, but on preserving what they have. “Unbridled growth and
> productivity gives way to a focus on health, balance and maximum
> longevity,” says Wong.
> --------------------------
>
> Original Research Paper here:-
> <https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2022.0029>
>
> This idea sounds reasonable to me. Currently our civilisation is
> looking for a new innovation - Fusion energy - to catch up with our
> energy requirements. Reducing oil consumption cannot be replaced by
> solar power and wind power. If a new energy resource cannot be found,
> then the shortages could well lead to new World Wars. A shrinkage of
> our civilisation, with the remnants forced to 'live within their
> means' no longer seems out of the question.
>
> BillK
>
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